Rise of the Driverless Car and How It Will Impact You
+Your world is about to change with widespread adoption of driverless cars. + Driverless cars or autonomous vehicles that interact with + their surroundings with radar, GPS, proximity sensors, and computer image enhancement. + This information is fed into a control system that uses it to plot navigation paths + and to respond to obstacles and road directions. A driverless car is capable of updating + its status based on changing conditions. Driverless cars should be autonomous even when + entering uncharted regions.
+In the United States, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has + proposed the following levels of autonomy for motorized vehicles:
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- Level 0 The driver completely controls the vehicle at all times. +
- Level 1 Individual vehicle controls are automated, such as electronic + stability control or automatic braking. +
- Level 2 At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as + adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping. +
- Level 3 The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical + functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to + retake control and provides a "sufficiently comfortable transition time" for the + driver to do so. +
- Level 4 The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the + entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. Because this + vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, + it could include unoccupied cars. +
Currently, we are at Level 2 with many vehicles able to provide automated safety systems, such as + automatic braking in response to input from collision sensors. +
When Does Full Autonomy Arrive?
+Level 4 autonomous vehicles are arriving and they're arriving quickly. The obstacles to adoption + of a driverless economy are legal and technical. The United States traffic code does not + prohibit autonomous vehicles, but it also does not specifically address them. Several states, + including Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan, have enacted traffic rules specifically + tailored to driverless cars and more states are in the processing of enacting such legislation.
+One area of legal entanglement is the laws against distracted driving. Google specifically requested + an exemption to permit occupants to send text messages while sitting behind the wheel of an + autonomous vehicle. Other similar regulations will need to be addressed as driverless cars move + from the testing stage into general use.
+Other countries have permitted the testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads. The United Kingdom + enacted a testing phase in 2013, followed shortly by France in 2014.
+Driverless cars have driven through San Francisco's Lombard Street, navigating its steep hairpin turns, + and city traffic. The testing vehicles provide an override to allow a human driver to take control + of the car. By August 2012, testers announced that they have driven over 300,000 miles accident-free. + By April 2014, autonomous vehicles have logged nearly 700,000 miles. As of June 2015, driverless cars + have been involved in 12 minor accidents on public roads. Eight of these accidents involved being + rear-ended, two in which the vehicle was side-swiped by another driver, one of which involved + another driver rolling through a stop sign, and one where the car was being driven manually.
+Driverless cars have not yet been tested in heavy rain or snow due to safety concerns. + Nor have they been tested in areas with temporary traffic lights or complex unmapped intersections. + The technical issues are daunting. An autonomous vehicle has difficulty with potholes, + roadside trash and debris, and interpreting unexpected signals, such as a police car signaling the + vehicle to pull over.
+Experts predict that autonomous vehicles will gradually be introduced into the market with + the following anticipated benchmarks:
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- 2017 U.S. Department of Transportation hopes to publish a rule mandating + vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication by an unspecified future date. +
- 2018 Tesla Motors expects to produce a version of fully self-driving cars, + where the driver can fall asleep, though the actuality of marketing such a vehicle will depend on + the economic and legal climate. +
- 2020 GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW, Renault, Tesla, and Google all expect + to sell vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time. +
- 2024 Jaguar expects to release an autonomous car. +
- 2025 Daimler and Ford expect to release autonomous vehicles on the market. +
- 2035 Information Handling Services (IHS) Automotive Report projects that most self-driving vehicles + will be operated completely independently from a human occupant’s control. +
- 2040 Experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) + estimate that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous. +
Clearly, the introduction and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will have enormous + repercussions.
+The Impact of Driverless Cars
+While it appears at first glance that a driverless car will be more dangerous than a + manually driven vehicle, it has been estimated that once we switch to a driverless + economy, we will see a 90% reduction in crashes, saving nearly 30,000 lives and + preventing 2.12 million injuries annually. Indeed, the whole design of the car will + change. Currently, a car is designed around the needs of the driver, but, when + all in the car are passengers, the interior space will be designed more economically and + efficiently.
+Beyond redesigning the car, we will also redesign our system of roads and traffic + control. This could mean loss of lots of road signs, lane markers, and street lights. + Cars can merge and change lanes more efficiently and speed limits can be safely + raised. Traffic control planners can redesign traffic flow to cooperative patterns + that will increase safety and reduce travel time (and road rage!)
+But this innovation is not without cost. We are a driving-based economy. Truckers, + taxis, car rentals, and car servicing are all based directly or indirectly on + manually-driven vehicles. The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people + are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in + dealer and maintenance network. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account + for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. That is 10 million jobs immediately at + risk with a move to a driverless economy and that does not count ancillary industries, + such as roadside diners and motels, which will also be affected when we need to + drive less often.
+On the other hand, research shows that currently manually-driven cars are driven + just 4% of the time at an average cost of $9000 per year in maintenance and upkeep. + Thus, an economy in which autonomous vehicles offered through car-sharing services like + Uber replace self-owned and self-driven cars, promises an enormous amount of savings + to the individual. It is estimated that despite the economic upheaval, eliminating the need + for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income.
+These are exciting times. While the full economic and social impact of a driverless + economy are still not fully grasped, the driverless economy once fully implemented will dwarf the impact of + the automobile, airplane, personal computer, and cell phone in how it changes our + lives and work.
+Now we just need to create a driverless car that can fly and I'm all set.
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