From 1905bdfcee6c40967f47f2e5c4c3ec7b49f1292d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2026 22:28:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] Add provisional OACT long-run target source --- policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md | 2 ++ .../datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py | 1 + policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md | 2 ++ 3 files changed, 5 insertions(+) diff --git a/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md b/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md index d43774853..1a0842c22 100644 --- a/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md +++ b/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md @@ -181,6 +181,7 @@ python run_household_projection_parallel.py \ **Local files** (in `policyengine_us_data/storage/`): - `SSPopJul_TR2024.csv` - Population projections 2025-2100 by single year of age - `long_term_target_sources/trustees_2025_current_law.csv` - explicit frozen Trustees/current-law package +- `long_term_target_sources/oact_2025_08_05_provisional.csv` - OACT-updated TOB package with provisional HI bridge - `long_term_target_sources/sources.json` - provenance metadata for named source packages - `ASSUMPTION_COMPARISON.md` - side-by-side summary of our calibration assumptions versus Trustees/OACT @@ -205,6 +206,7 @@ python run_household_projection_parallel.py \ - **`run_household_projection.py`** - Main projection script (see Quick Start) - **`calibration.py`** - IPF and GREG weight calibration implementations - **`ssa_data.py`** - Load SSA population and named long-term target source projections +- **`build_long_term_target_sources.py`** - Rebuild named long-term target source packages - **`projection_utils.py`** - Utility functions (age matrix builder, H5 file creator) - **`extract_ssa_costs.py`** - One-time script to extract SSA data from Excel (already run) diff --git a/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py b/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py index 5fd8008de..4d07e4d80 100644 --- a/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py +++ b/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py @@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ python run_household_projection.py 2075 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-synthetic-v1 --support-augmentation-target-year 2100 --allow-validation-failures python run_household_projection.py 2100 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-composite-v1 --support-augmentation-target-year 2100 --support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale 0.5 --allow-validation-failures --save-h5 python run_household_projection.py 2075 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-composite-v1 --support-augmentation-align-to-run-year --support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale 0.5 --allow-validation-failures + python run_household_projection.py 2025 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source oact_2025_08_05_provisional --save-h5 """ import sys diff --git a/policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md b/policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md index ac4478902..65f8c2592 100644 --- a/policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md +++ b/policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md @@ -34,6 +34,8 @@ • Source packages for long-term CPS calibration targets • Files: - `trustees_2025_current_law.csv`: explicit frozen copy of the legacy Trustees/current-law target path + - `oact_2025_08_05_provisional.csv`: OACT-updated TOB path with provisional HI bridge + - `oasdi_oact_20250805_nominal_delta.csv`: raw OASDI TOB deltas from the August 5, 2025 OACT letter - `sources.json`: provenance and source metadata for each named package • Notes: `run_household_projection.py --target-source ...` selects from these packages instead of relying on branch-specific data files From 7a49fd5962c04fb3f27661e79ef8e01c5e7ee723 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 5 Apr 2026 17:04:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Trigger PR checks