diff --git a/architecture.png b/architecture.png new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cc2c767b Binary files /dev/null and b/architecture.png differ diff --git a/architecture.svg b/architecture.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e169aa60 --- /dev/null +++ b/architecture.svg @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Policies + Tax-benefit rules + & parameters + (US & UK country packages) + + + + Households + Survey microdata + with calibrated weights + (CPS, Family Resources Survey) + + + + Dynamics + Behavioural responses + to policy changes + (labour supply elasticities) + + + + + + + + + Simulation + + + + + + + Decile impacts · Poverty rates · Inequality metrics · Regional breakdowns · Budgetary impacts + diff --git a/changelog.d/joss-paper.added.md b/changelog.d/joss-paper.added.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..95a2b9b2 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/joss-paper.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Added JOSS paper (paper.md and paper.bib) for submission to the Journal of Open Source Software. diff --git a/paper-preview.html b/paper-preview.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..950ace42 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper-preview.html @@ -0,0 +1,818 @@ + + + + + + PolicyEngine: A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Framework + + + + + +
+
+
JOSS Paper Preview
+

PolicyEngine: A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation +Framework

+
+ Max +Ghenis1 + Nikhil +Woodruff1 + Vahid +Ahmadi1 * + Pavel +Makarchuk1 +
+
1 PolicyEngine, Washington, +DC, United States
+ +
+ Python + microsimulation + tax + benefit + public policy + economic analysis +
+
+
+ + +
+ + +
+

Summary

+

PolicyEngine.py (PolicyEngine Contributors 2026) is +an open-source, multi-country microsimulation framework for tax-benefit +policy analysis, implemented in Python. The package provides a unified +interface for running policy simulations, analyzing distributional +impacts, and visualizing results across the US and the UK. It delegates +country-specific tax-benefit calculations to dedicated country packages +(policyengine-us and policyengine-uk) while providing shared +abstractions for simulations, datasets, parametric reforms, and output +analysis. The framework supports both individual household simulations +and population-wide microsimulations using representative survey +microdata with calibrated weights. PolicyEngine powers an interactive +web application at policyengine.org that enables +non-technical users to explore policy reforms in both countries.

+

Statement of Need

+

Tax-benefit microsimulation models are essential tools for evaluating +the distributional impacts of fiscal policy. Governments, think tanks, +and researchers rely on such models to estimate how policy reforms +affect household incomes, poverty rates, and government budgets. +Existing microsimulation models face significant access barriers. TAXSIM +(Feenberg and Coutts +1993) at NBER computes only tax liabilities and omits the benefit +side of the ledger entirely. The models maintained by the Congressional +Budget Office and the Tax Policy Center are fully proprietary and +unavailable to external researchers. In the UK, UKMOD (Sutherland and +Figari 2013), maintained by the University of Essex, requires a +formal application and institutional affiliation to access, and the +models maintained by HM Treasury and the Institute for Fiscal Studies +are similarly proprietary. PolicyEngine addresses these gaps by +providing an open-source Python microsimulation framework that spans +multiple countries under a consistent API. Users can supply their own +microdata or use built-in datasets, and compute the impact of current +law or hypothetical policy reforms on any household or a national +population. The Simulation class supports individual household analysis, +while population-level aggregate analysis uses representative survey +datasets with calibrated weights. Because existing proprietary models +cannot be independently verified, PolicyEngine enables reproducible and +transparent policy analysis. The framework’s open development on GitHub +enables external validation, community contributions, and reproducible +policy analysis across countries.

+

State of the Field

+

Tax-benefit microsimulation — pioneered by Orcutt (1957) and surveyed by Bourguignon and +Spadaro (2006) — underpins much of modern +fiscal policy evaluation. The primary UK microsimulation models include +UKMOD, maintained by the Institute for Social and Economic Research +(ISER), University of Essex, as part of the EUROMOD family (Sutherland and +Figari 2013), and proprietary models maintained by HM Treasury +and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. OpenFisca (OpenFisca Contributors 2024) pioneered +the open-source approach to tax-benefit microsimulation in France. +PolicyEngine originated from OpenFisca and builds on this foundation +through the PolicyEngine Core framework (Woodruff et al. 2024).

+

Rather than contributing these features directly to OpenFisca, +PolicyEngine introduced a separate analyst-facing layer because the +project required capabilities that cut across countries and sit +downstream of legislative modeling: harmonized dataset handling, a +stable reform API, standardized distributional outputs, and integration +with a public-facing web application. This design lets country model +packages focus on statutory rules while shared analysis workflows evolve +independently.

+

PolicyEngine differentiates itself in several ways:

+ +

Software Design

+

PolicyEngine is built as a four-layer system. PolicyEngine Core +extends the OpenFisca engine with reusable simulation abstractions, +versioned parameters, and dataset interfaces shared across countries +(Woodruff et al. +2024). PolicyEngine.py adds country-agnostic analyst workflows, +including baseline-versus-reform comparisons, standardized output types, +and visualization helpers. The policyengine-us and policyengine-uk +packages contain statutory logic, variables, and entity structures +specific to each tax-benefit system. Companion data repositories hold +enhanced survey microdata and calibration pipelines for the CPS (Woodruff and Ghenis 2024) +and Family Resources Survey.

+
+ + +
+

This split trades some packaging complexity for clearer ownership and +release independence. Legislative changes in a country package do not +require duplicating shared output logic; methodological changes to +distributional analysis do not require modifying statutory formulas; and +microdata refreshes can be versioned separately from the modeling +libraries. It also supports different contributor workflows, since legal +rules, data calibration, and analyst-facing outputs are maintained by +overlapping but distinct groups.

+

As shown in Figure 1, at runtime a simulation combines three inputs: +policies from a country model version, household microdata, and optional +behavioral response parameters. The following example doubles the US +federal standard deduction for single filers and runs a full +distributional analysis:

+
import datetime
+from policyengine.core import Parameter, ParameterValue, Policy, Simulation
+from policyengine.tax_benefit_models.us import (
+    economic_impact_analysis, us_latest,
+)
+
+param = Parameter(
+    name="gov.irs.deductions.standard.amount.SINGLE",
+    tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest,
+)
+reform = Policy(
+    name="Double standard deduction",
+    parameter_values=[
+        ParameterValue(
+            parameter=param,
+            start_date=datetime.date(2026, 1, 1),
+            end_date=datetime.date(2026, 12, 31),
+            value=30_950,
+        ),
+    ],
+)
+baseline = Simulation(tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest)
+reformed = Simulation(tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest, policy=reform)
+analysis = economic_impact_analysis(baseline, reformed)
+

The analysis object contains decile impacts, +program-by-program statistics, poverty rates, and inequality metrics. +PolicyEngine.py then applies a consistent analysis layer across +countries, producing these outputs from the resulting entity-level +data.

+

PolicyEngine models static fiscal impacts; it does not model +macroeconomic feedback effects or general equilibrium responses.

+

Research Impact Statement

+

PolicyEngine has demonstrated research impact across government, +academia, and policy research in both the US and UK.

+

Government adoption. In the US, PolicyEngine +collaborated with the Better Government Lab — a joint center of the +Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy and the University of +Michigan Ford School of Public Policy — on benefits eligibility research +(Ghenis 2024b). In the +UK, co-author Nikhil Woodruff served as an Innovation Fellow in +2025–2026 with 10DS — the data science team at 10 Downing Street — +adapting PolicyEngine for government use (HM Government 2025). The 10DS team +used PolicyEngine to rapidly estimate the impacts of policy reforms on +living standards, local area incomes, and distributional outcomes. HM +Treasury has also formally documented PolicyEngine in the UK Algorithmic +Transparency Recording Standard, describing it as a model their Personal +Tax, Welfare and Pensions team is exploring for “advising policymakers +on the impact of tax and welfare measures on households” (HM Treasury 2024).

+

Congressional and parliamentary citation. In the US, +Representatives Morgan McGarvey and Bonnie Watson Coleman cited +PolicyEngine’s analysis in introducing the Young Adult Tax Credit Act +(H.R.7547), stating that “according to the model at PolicyEngine, 22% of +all Americans would see an increase in their household income under this +program, and it would lift over 4 million Americans out of poverty” +(Office of +Representative Morgan McGarvey 2024). In the UK, Baroness Altmann +referenced PolicyEngine and its interactive dashboard during House of +Lords Grand Committee debate on the National Insurance Contributions +(Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill in February 2026, noting that +Commons Library research using PolicyEngine provided “a useful picture +of the distributional effects of raising the contribution limit” across +income deciles (House +of Lords 2026).

+

Institutional partnership. PolicyEngine and the +National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) signed a formal memorandum +of understanding for PolicyEngine to develop an open-source TAXSIM +emulator — a drop-in replacement for TAXSIM-35 powered by PolicyEngine’s +microsimulation engine, with support for Python, R, Stata, SAS, and +Julia (Feenberg +2024). The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta independently +validates PolicyEngine’s model through its Policy Rules Database, +conducting three-way comparisons between PolicyEngine, TAXSIM, and the +Fed’s own models (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta +2021). Co-author Max Ghenis and Jason DeBacker (University of +South Carolina) presented the Enhanced Current Population Survey +methodology at the 117th Annual Conference on Taxation of the National +Tax Association (Ghenis and DeBacker 2024).

+

Academic research. Matt Unrath (University of +Southern California) is using PolicyEngine in a study of effective +marginal and average tax rates facing American families, funded by the +US Department of Health and Human Services through the Institute for +Research on Poverty (Institute for Research on Poverty 2025). The +Beeck Center at Georgetown University featured PolicyEngine in research +on rules-as-code for US public benefits (Kennan et al. 2023, 2025). +Youngman et al. (Youngman et al. 2026) cite +PolicyEngine UK’s microdata methodology in their agent-based +macroeconomic model for the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget at the Institute +for New Economic Thinking, Oxford.

+

Policy research. In the US, the Niskanen Center used +PolicyEngine to estimate the cost and distributional impacts of Child +Tax Credit reform options (McCabe and Sargeant 2024). DC +Councilmember Zachary Parker cited PolicyEngine’s analysis when +introducing the District Child Tax Credit Amendment Act of 2023, the +first local child tax credit in US history (Council of the District of Columbia 2023). +Senator Cory Booker’s office embedded a PolicyEngine-built calculator on +his official Senate website for the Keep Your Pay Act (Office of Senator Cory +Booker 2026). In the UK, the National Institute of Economic and +Social Research (NIESR) used PolicyEngine in their UK Living Standards +Review 2025 (Mosley +et al. 2025), and the Institute of Economic Affairs has published +PolicyEngine-based analyses of employer National Insurance contributions +and 2025–2026 tax changes (Woodruff 2024, +2025).

+

Acknowledgements

+

This work was supported in the US by Arnold Ventures (Arnold Ventures +2023), NEO Philanthropy (Ghenis 2024a), the Gerald Huff +Fund for Humanity, and the National Science Foundation (NSF POSE Phase +I, Award 2518372) (National +Science Foundation 2025), and in the UK by the Nuffield +Foundation since September 2024 (Nuffield Foundation 2024). These +funders had no involvement in the design, development, or content of +this software or paper.

+

We acknowledge contributions from all PolicyEngine contributors, and +thank the OpenFisca community for the foundational microsimulation +framework (OpenFisca +Contributors 2024). We acknowledge the US Census Bureau for +providing access to the Current Population Survey, and the UK Data +Service and the Department for Work and Pensions for providing access to +the Family Resources Survey. We acknowledge the UKMOD team at the +Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, +for their contributions to model descriptions (Sutherland and Figari +2013).

+

AI Usage Disclosure

+

Generative AI tools — Claude Opus 4 by Anthropic (Anthropic 2026) — were +used to assist with code refactoring. All +AI-assisted outputs were reviewed, edited, and validated by human +authors, who made all core design decisions regarding software +architecture, policy modeling, and parameter implementation. The authors +remain fully responsible for the accuracy, originality, and correctness +of all submitted materials.

+

References

+
+
+Anthropic. 2026. Claude. Released. https://www.anthropic.com/claude. +
+
+Arnold Ventures. 2023. Public Finance Program. https://www.arnoldventures.org/work/public-finance. +
+
+Bourguignon, François, and Amedeo Spadaro. 2006. +"Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution +Policies." The Journal of Economic Inequality 4: +77–106. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-005-9012-6. +
+
+Council of the District of Columbia. 2023. District Child Tax +Credit Amendment Act of 2023. https://lims.dccouncil.gov/Legislation/B25-0190. +
+
+Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2021. Policy Rules Database. +https://github.com/Research-Division/policy-rules-database. +
+
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+
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+
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+
+McCabe, Joshua, and Leah Sargeant. 2024. Building a Stronger +Foundation for American Families: Options for Child +Tax Credit Reform. Niskanen Center. https://www.niskanencenter.org/building-a-stronger-foundation-for-american-families-options-for-child-tax-credit-reform/. +
+
+Mosley, Max, Ryan Wattam, and Carol Vincent. 2025. UK +Living Standards Review 2025. National Institute of Economic; +Social Research. https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standards-review-2025. +
+
+National Science Foundation. 2025. POSE: Phase +I: PolicyEngine – Advancing Public Policy +Analysis. https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2518372. +
+
+Nuffield Foundation. 2024. Enhancing, Localising and Democratising +Tax-Benefit Policy Analysis. https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/enhancing-localising-and-democratising-tax-benefit-policy-analysis. +
+
+Office of Representative Morgan McGarvey. 2024. Congressman +Morgan McGarvey Introduces Young Adult Tax Credit +Act. https://mcgarvey.house.gov/media/press-releases/congressman-morgan-mcgarvey-introduces-young-adult-tax-credit-act. +
+
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+
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+
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+
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+
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+
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+
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+
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+
+ + + + + diff --git a/paper.bib b/paper.bib new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1e1142c3 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper.bib @@ -0,0 +1,273 @@ +@article{orcutt1957, + title={A New Type of Socio-Economic System}, + author={Orcutt, Guy H.}, + journal={Review of Economics and Statistics}, + volume={39}, + number={2}, + pages={116--123}, + year={1957}, + doi={10.2307/1928528} +} + +@article{bourguignon2006, + title={Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution Policies}, + author={Bourguignon, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Spadaro, Amedeo}, + journal={The Journal of Economic Inequality}, + volume={4}, + pages={77--106}, + year={2006}, + doi={10.1007/s10888-005-9012-6} +} + +@article{sutherland2014euromod, + title={{EUROMOD}: the {European Union} tax-benefit microsimulation model}, + author={Sutherland, Holly and Figari, Francesco}, + journal={International Journal of Microsimulation}, + volume={6}, + number={1}, + pages={4--26}, + year={2013}, + doi={10.34196/ijm.00075} +} + +@software{openfisca, + title={{OpenFisca}: Open Rules as Code for Tax-Benefit Systems}, + author={{OpenFisca Contributors}}, + url={https://openfisca.org}, + year={2024} +} + +@software{policyengine_core, + title={{PolicyEngine Core}: A Microsimulation Framework}, + author={Woodruff, Nikhil and Ghenis, Max and Volk, Anthony}, + url={https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-core}, + year={2024} +} + +@software{policyengine_py, + title={{PolicyEngine.py}}, + author={{PolicyEngine Contributors}}, + url={https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine.py}, + year={2026} +} + +@unpublished{woodruff2024enhanced_cps, + title={Enhancing Survey Microdata with Administrative Records: A Novel Approach to Microsimulation Dataset Construction}, + author={Woodruff, Nikhil and Ghenis, Max}, + year={2024}, + note={PolicyEngine working paper}, + url={https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data/tree/main/paper} +} + +@article{taxsim, + title={{TAXSIM}: A Tool for Calculating Federal and State Income Tax Liabilities}, + author={Feenberg, Daniel R. and Coutts, Elisabeth}, + journal={National Tax Journal}, + volume={46}, + number={3}, + pages={271--280}, + year={1993} +} + +@misc{frs2020, + title={Family Resources Survey, 2019-2020}, + author={{Department for Work and Pensions} and {Office for National Statistics} and {NatCen Social Research}}, + year={2021}, + publisher={UK Data Service}, + note={SN: 8802}, + doi={10.5255/UKDA-SN-8802-1} +} + +@misc{hansard2026nic, + title={National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill -- Grand Committee}, + author={{House of Lords}}, + year={2026}, + month={2}, + day={24}, + note={Hansard, GC 371--372. Baroness Altmann citing PolicyEngine and its interactive dashboard for distributional analysis of pension contribution reforms}, + url={https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2026-02-24/debates/A381F7D6-0A3C-48FD-8D9E-67751E25877A/NationalInsuranceContributions(EmployerPensionsContributions)Bill} +} + +@techreport{niesr2025living, + title={{UK} Living Standards Review 2025}, + author={Mosley, Max and Wattam, Ryan and Vincent, Carol}, + institution={National Institute of Economic and Social Research}, + year={2025}, + url={https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standards-review-2025} +} + +@misc{ghenis2026no10, + title={The {No10 Innovation Fellowship} Programme}, + author={{HM Government}}, + year={2025}, + url={https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-no10-innovation-fellowship-programme} +} + +@misc{hmt2024atrs, + title={{HMT}: {PolicyEngine UK} -- Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standard}, + author={{HM Treasury}}, + year={2024}, + month={12}, + day={17}, + note={ATRS v3.0. HM Treasury Personal Tax, Welfare and Pensions team exploring PolicyEngine UK for advising policymakers on the impact of tax and welfare measures on households}, + url={https://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmt-modelling-policy-engine} +} + +@article{youngman2026carbon, + title={Agent-based macroeconomics for the {UK}'s {Seventh Carbon Budget}}, + author={Youngman, Tom and Lennox, Tim and Lopes Alves, M. and Palola, Pirta and Tankwa, Brendon and Bailey, Emma and Ravigne, Emilien and Ter Horst, Thijs and Wagenvoort, Benjamin and Lightfoot Brown, Harry and Moran, Jose and Farmer, Doyne}, + year={2026}, + eprint={2602.15607}, + archiveprefix={arXiv}, + primaryclass={econ.GN}, + url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.15607} +} + +@techreport{woodruff2024nic, + title={Raising employer {NIC} in the {Autumn Budget}}, + author={Woodruff, Nikhil}, + institution={Institute of Economic Affairs}, + year={2024}, + month={10}, + url={https://iea.org.uk/publications/raising-employer-nic-in-the-autumn-budget/} +} + +@techreport{woodruff2025tax, + title={Impact of Tax Changes 2025--2026}, + author={Woodruff, Nikhil}, + institution={Institute of Economic Affairs}, + year={2025}, + month={3}, + url={https://iea.org.uk/publications/impact-of-tax-changes-2025-2026/} +} + +@misc{mcgarvey2024yatc, + title={Congressman {Morgan McGarvey} Introduces {Young Adult Tax Credit Act}}, + author={{Office of Representative Morgan McGarvey}}, + year={2024}, + month={3}, + day={5}, + note={Press release citing PolicyEngine analysis of H.R.7547}, + url={https://mcgarvey.house.gov/media/press-releases/congressman-morgan-mcgarvey-introduces-young-adult-tax-credit-act} +} + +@online{pe_nber_mou, + title={{TAXSIM} -- {National Bureau of Economic Research}}, + author={Feenberg, Daniel R.}, + year={2024}, + note={References PolicyEngine as successor to TAXSIM under a formal memorandum of understanding}, + url={https://taxsim.nber.org/} +} + +@misc{ghenis2024nta, + title={Enhanced {Current Population Survey}: Integrating {IRS} Public Use File Data Using Quantile Regression Forests}, + author={Ghenis, Max and DeBacker, Jason}, + year={2024}, + month={11}, + note={Presented at the 117th Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, Detroit, Michigan}, + url={https://ntanet.org/2024/07/117th-annual-conference-on-taxation-full/} +} + +@techreport{mccabe2024ctc, + title={Building a Stronger Foundation for {American} Families: Options for {Child Tax Credit} Reform}, + author={McCabe, Joshua and Sargeant, Leah}, + institution={Niskanen Center}, + year={2024}, + month={3}, + url={https://www.niskanencenter.org/building-a-stronger-foundation-for-american-families-options-for-child-tax-credit-reform/} +} + +@online{pe_bgl, + title={{PolicyEngine} and {Better Government Lab} Collaboration}, + author={Ghenis, Max}, + year={2024}, + url={https://www.policyengine.org/us/research/policyengine-better-government-lab-collaboration} +} + +@misc{pe_usc, + title={2025--2026 {IRP} Extramural Large Grants}, + author={{Institute for Research on Poverty}}, + year={2025}, + note={University of Wisconsin--Madison. Includes PolicyEngine collaboration with Matt Unrath (USC) on effective marginal tax rates}, + url={https://www.irp.wisc.edu/2025-2026-irp-extramural-large-grants/} +} + +@techreport{beeck2023rac, + title={Exploring Rules Communication: Moving Beyond Static Documents to Standardized Code for {U.S.} Public Benefits Programs}, + author={Kennan, Ariel and Singh, Lisa and Dammholz, Bianca and Sengupta, Keya and Yi, Jason}, + institution={Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation, Georgetown University}, + year={2023}, + month={6}, + url={https://beeckcenter.georgetown.edu/report/exploring-rules-communication-moving-beyond-static-documents-to-standardized-code-for-u-s-public-benefits-programs/} +} + +@techreport{beeck2025ai, + title={{AI}-Powered Rules as Code: Experiments with Public Benefits Policy}, + author={Kennan, Ariel and Garcia Guevara, Alessandra and Goodman, Jason}, + institution={Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation, Georgetown University}, + year={2025}, + month={3}, + url={https://beeckcenter.georgetown.edu/report/ai-powered-rules-as-code-experiments-with-public-benefits-policy/} +} + +@misc{pe_dctc, + title={{District Child Tax Credit Amendment Act} of 2023}, + author={{Council of the District of Columbia}}, + year={2023}, + note={Bill B25-0190, introduced by Councilmember Zachary Parker}, + url={https://lims.dccouncil.gov/Legislation/B25-0190} +} + +@misc{pe_keepyourpay, + title={Booker Announces {Keep Your Pay Act}}, + author={{Office of Senator Cory Booker}}, + year={2026}, + month={3}, + url={https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/booker-announces-keep-your-pay-act} +} + +@misc{arnold_ventures, + title={Public Finance Program}, + author={{Arnold Ventures}}, + year={2023}, + note={Grant to PolicyEngine for congressional district-level policy analysis}, + url={https://www.arnoldventures.org/work/public-finance} +} + +@misc{nsf_pose, + title={{POSE}: Phase {I}: {PolicyEngine} -- Advancing Public Policy Analysis}, + author={{National Science Foundation}}, + year={2025}, + note={Award 2518372. PI: Max Ghenis, PSL Foundation. \$299,974}, + url={https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2518372} +} + +@online{neo_philanthropy, + title={{NEO Philanthropy} Awards \$200,000 Grant to {PolicyEngine}}, + author={Ghenis, Max}, + year={2024}, + url={https://policyengine.org/us/research/neo-philanthropy} +} + +@misc{atlanta_fed_prd, + title={Policy Rules Database}, + author={{Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta}}, + year={2021}, + note={Collaboration between the Atlanta Fed, National Center for Children in Poverty, and PolicyEngine for multi-model validation}, + url={https://github.com/Research-Division/policy-rules-database} +} + +@software{claude2026, + title={Claude}, + author={{Anthropic}}, + year={2026}, + url={https://www.anthropic.com/claude} +} + +@misc{nuffield2024grant, + title={Enhancing, localising and democratising tax-benefit policy analysis}, + author={{Nuffield Foundation}}, + year={2024}, + note={General Election Analysis and Briefing Fund grant to PolicyEngine}, + url={https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/enhancing-localising-and-democratising-tax-benefit-policy-analysis} +} diff --git a/paper.html b/paper.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..477a62db --- /dev/null +++ b/paper.html @@ -0,0 +1,780 @@ + + + + + +PolicyEngine: A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Framework + + + + + +
+
+
JOSS Paper Preview
+

PolicyEngine: A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Framework

+
+ Max Ghenis1 + Nikhil Woodruff1 + Pavel Makarchuk1 + Vahid Ahmadi1 * +
+
1 PolicyEngine
+ +
+ Python + microsimulation + tax + benefit + public policy + economic analysis +
+
+
+ + +
+ + +
+

Summary

+

PolicyEngine is an open-source, multi-country microsimulation +framework for tax-benefit policy analysis, implemented in Python. The +policyengine package provides a unified interface for running policy +simulations, analyzing distributional impacts, and visualizing results +across the US and the UK. It delegates country-specific tax-benefit +calculations to dedicated country packages (policyengine-us and +policyengine-uk) while providing shared abstractions for simulations, +datasets, parametric reforms, and output analysis. The framework +supports both individual household simulations and population-wide +microsimulations using representative survey microdata with calibrated +weights. PolicyEngine powers an interactive web application at policyengine.org that enables +non-technical users to explore policy reforms in both countries.

+

Statement of Need

+

Tax-benefit microsimulation models are essential tools for evaluating +the distributional impacts of fiscal policy. Governments, think tanks, +and researchers rely on such models to estimate how policy reforms +affect household incomes, poverty rates, and government budgets. +Existing microsimulation models face significant access barriers. TAXSIM +(Feenberg and Coutts +1993) at NBER computes only tax liabilities and omits the benefit +side of the ledger entirely. The models maintained by the Congressional +Budget Office and the Tax Policy Center are fully proprietary and +unavailable to external researchers. In the UK, UKMOD (Sutherland and +Figari 2013), maintained by the University of Essex, requires a +formal application and institutional affiliation to access, and the +models maintained by HM Treasury and the Institute for Fiscal Studies +are similarly proprietary. PolicyEngine addresses these gaps by +providing a fully open-source Python microsimulation framework that +spans multiple countries under a consistent API. Users can supply their +own microdata or use built-in datasets, and compute the impact of +current law or hypothetical policy reforms on any household or a full +national population. The Simulation class supports individual household +analysis, while population-level aggregate analysis uses representative +survey datasets with calibrated weights. The framework’s open +development on GitHub enables external validation, community +contributions, and reproducible policy analysis across countries.

+

State of the Field

+

In the US, TAXSIM (Feenberg and Coutts 1993) at the National +Bureau of Economic Research provides tax calculations, while the Tax +Policy Center and Congressional Budget Office maintain proprietary +models. In the UK, the primary microsimulation models include UKMOD, +maintained by the Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the +Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, +as part of the EUROMOD family (Sutherland and Figari 2013), +and models maintained internally by HM Treasury and the Institute for +Fiscal Studies. OpenFisca (OpenFisca Contributors 2024) pioneered +the open-source approach to tax-benefit microsimulation in France. +PolicyEngine originated from OpenFisca and builds on this foundation +through the PolicyEngine Core framework (Woodruff et al. 2024).

+

PolicyEngine differentiates itself in several ways:

+ +

Software Design

+

PolicyEngine is built on the PolicyEngine Core framework, which +extends the OpenFisca microsimulation engine. The policyengine.py +package is organized as a country-agnostic layer with the following core +components:

+

Simulation and Dataset classes provide the primary +interface. The Simulation class executes tax-benefit models on datasets, +applying policy reforms and caching results. The Dataset class +represents microdata containing entity-level data (persons, households, +tax units) with survey weights and entity relationships. +Country-specific datasets — the Current Population Survey for the US and +the Enhanced Family Resources Survey for the UK — are loaded from +companion data repositories (Woodruff and Ghenis 2024).

+

Policy and Parameter classes define the reform +system. The Policy class bundles parametric reforms that modify +tax-benefit system parameters. The Parameter class represents system +settings (tax rates, benefit thresholds, income limits), while +ParameterValue supports time-bound values, enabling phased policy +implementations across multiple years.

+

Variable classes encapsulate country-specific logic. +Each Variable is a computed quantity (income tax, benefit entitlement) +with entity mappings. Versioned country models store variables, +parameters, and execution logic. The framework conditionally imports +country packages, allowing graceful operation when only one country is +installed.

+

Output classes provide standardized analysis. These +include Aggregate for sum, mean, and count statistics; DecileImpact and +IntraDecileImpact for distributional analysis by income decile; Poverty +and Inequality for welfare metrics; ChangeAggregate for +baseline-versus-reform comparisons; and region-specific classes such as +CongressionalDistrictImpact (US) and ConstituencyImpact (UK). All output +classes produce PolicyEngine-branded Plotly visualizations.

+

Region classes manage geographic scope, enabling +sub-national analysis for regions within each country.

+

Research Impact Statement

+

PolicyEngine has demonstrated research impact across government, +academia, and policy research in both the US and UK.

+

Government adoption. In the US, PolicyEngine +collaborated with the Better Government Lab — a joint center of the +Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy and the University of +Michigan Ford School of Public Policy — on benefits eligibility research +(Ghenis 2024b). In the +UK, co-author Nikhil Woodruff served as an Innovation Fellow in +2025–2026 with 10DS — the data science team at 10 Downing Street — +adapting PolicyEngine for government use (HM Government 2025). The 10DS team +used PolicyEngine to rapidly estimate the impacts of policy reforms on +living standards, local area incomes, and distributional outcomes. HM +Treasury has also formally documented PolicyEngine in the UK Algorithmic +Transparency Recording Standard, describing it as a model their Personal +Tax, Welfare and Pensions team is exploring for “advising policymakers +on the impact of tax and welfare measures on households” (HM Treasury 2024).

+

Congressional and parliamentary citation. In the US, +Representatives Morgan McGarvey and Bonnie Watson Coleman cited +PolicyEngine’s analysis in introducing the Young Adult Tax Credit Act +(H.R.7547), stating that “according to the model at PolicyEngine, 22% of +all Americans would see an increase in their household income under this +program, and it would lift over 4 million Americans out of poverty” +(Office of +Representative Morgan McGarvey 2024). In the UK, Baroness Altmann +referenced PolicyEngine and its interactive dashboard during House of +Lords Grand Committee debate on the National Insurance Contributions +(Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill in February 2026, noting that +Commons Library research using PolicyEngine provided “a useful picture +of the distributional effects of raising the contribution limit” across +income deciles (House +of Lords 2026).

+

Institutional partnership. PolicyEngine and the +National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) signed a formal memorandum +of understanding for PolicyEngine to develop an open-source TAXSIM +emulator — a drop-in replacement for TAXSIM-35 powered by PolicyEngine’s +microsimulation engine, with support for Python, R, Stata, SAS, and +Julia (Feenberg +2024). The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta independently +validates PolicyEngine’s model through its Policy Rules Database, +conducting three-way comparisons between PolicyEngine, TAXSIM, and the +Fed’s own models (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta +2021). Co-author Max Ghenis and Jason DeBacker (University of +South Carolina) presented the Enhanced Current Population Survey +methodology at the 117th Annual Conference on Taxation of the National +Tax Association (Ghenis and DeBacker 2024).

+

Academic research. In the US, Matt Unrath +(University of Southern California) is using PolicyEngine in a study of +effective marginal and average tax rates facing American families, +funded by the US Department of Health and Human Services through the +Institute for Research on Poverty (Institute for Research on Poverty 2025). +Jason DeBacker (University of South Carolina) has contributed to +behavioral response modeling in PolicyEngine US with support from Arnold +Ventures (Ghenis and +DeBacker 2024). The Beeck Center for Social Impact and Innovation +at Georgetown University featured PolicyEngine as a project spotlight in +their research on rules-as-code for US public benefits programs (Kennan et al. 2023), +and documented two Policy2Code challenge teams building on PolicyEngine +in their 2025 report on AI-powered rules as code (Kennan et al. 2025). In the UK, +Youngman et al. (Youngman et al. 2026) cite +PolicyEngine UK’s microdata methodology in their agent-based +macroeconomic model for the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, developed at the +Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford in partnership with the +Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

+

Policy research. In the US, the Niskanen Center used +PolicyEngine to estimate the cost and distributional impacts of Child +Tax Credit reform options, becoming the first external organization to +leverage PolicyEngine’s enhanced US microdata (McCabe and Sargeant 2024). DC +Councilmember Zachary Parker cited PolicyEngine’s analysis when +introducing the District Child Tax Credit Amendment Act of 2023, which +became the first local child tax credit in US history when it passed in +September 2024 (Council of +the District of Columbia 2023). Senator Cory Booker’s office +embedded a PolicyEngine-built calculator on his official Senate website +for constituents to model the impact of the Keep Your Pay Act on their +household taxes (Office of Senator Cory Booker 2026). +In the UK, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research +(NIESR) used PolicyEngine in their UK Living Standards Review 2025, +acknowledging “the expertise and generosity of Nikhil Woodruff and Vahid +Ahmadi in helping us maximise the benefits of using PolicyEngine” (Mosley et al. +2025). The Institute of Economic Affairs has published reports +using PolicyEngine’s microsimulation model to analyze employer National +Insurance contributions (Woodruff 2024) and the +distributional impact of 2025–2026 tax changes on UK households (Woodruff +2025).

+

Acknowledgements

+

This work was supported in the US by Arnold Ventures (Arnold Ventures +2023), NEO Philanthropy (Ghenis 2024a), the Gerald Huff +Fund for Humanity, and the National Science Foundation (NSF POSE Phase +I, Award 2518372) (National +Science Foundation 2025), and in the UK by the Nuffield +Foundation since September 2024 (Nuffield Foundation 2024). These +funders had no involvement in the design, development, or content of +this software or paper.

+

We acknowledge contributions from all PolicyEngine contributors, and +thank the OpenFisca community for the foundational microsimulation +framework (OpenFisca +Contributors 2024). We acknowledge the US Census Bureau for +providing access to the Current Population Survey, and the UK Data +Service and the Department for Work and Pensions for providing access to +the Family Resources Survey. We acknowledge the UKMOD team at the +Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, +for their contributions to model descriptions (Sutherland and Figari +2013).

+

AI Usage Disclosure

+

Generative AI tools — Claude by Anthropic (Anthropic 2026) — were used to assist +with code refactoring. All AI-assisted +outputs were reviewed, edited, and validated by human authors, who made +all core design decisions regarding software architecture, policy +modeling, and parameter implementation. The authors remain fully +responsible for the accuracy, originality, and correctness of all +submitted materials.

+

References

+
+
+Anthropic. 2026. Claude. Released. https://www.anthropic.com/claude. +
+
+Arnold Ventures. 2023. Public Finance Program. https://www.arnoldventures.org/work/public-finance. +
+
+Council of the District of Columbia. 2023. District Child Tax +Credit Amendment Act of 2023. https://lims.dccouncil.gov/Legislation/B25-0190. +
+
+Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2021. Policy Rules Database. +https://github.com/Research-Division/policy-rules-database. +
+
+Feenberg, Daniel R. 2024. TAXSIMNational Bureau of Economic Research.” https://taxsim.nber.org/. +
+
+Feenberg, Daniel R., and Elisabeth Coutts. 1993. +TAXSIM: A Tool for Calculating Federal and State +Income Tax Liabilities.” National Tax Journal 46 (3): +271–80. +
+
+Ghenis, Max. 2024a. NEO Philanthropy Awards $200,000 +Grant to PolicyEngine.” https://policyengine.org/us/research/neo-philanthropy. +
+
+Ghenis, Max. 2024b. PolicyEngine and Better +Government Lab Collaboration.” https://www.policyengine.org/us/research/policyengine-better-government-lab-collaboration. +
+
+Ghenis, Max, and Jason DeBacker. 2024. Enhanced Current +Population Survey: Integrating IRS Public Use File +Data Using Quantile Regression Forests. https://ntanet.org/2024/07/117th-annual-conference-on-taxation-full/. +
+
+Woodruff, Nikhil, and Max Ghenis. 2024. Enhancing Survey Microdata +with Administrative Records: A Novel Approach to Microsimulation Dataset +Construction. PolicyEngine working paper. https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data/tree/main/paper. +
+
+HM Government. 2025. The No10 Innovation Fellowship +Programme. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-no10-innovation-fellowship-programme. +
+
+HM Treasury. 2024. HMT: PolicyEngine UK – +Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standard. https://www.gov.uk/algorithmic-transparency-records/hmt-modelling-policy-engine. +
+
+House of Lords. 2026. National Insurance Contributions (Employer +Pensions Contributions) Bill – Grand Committee. https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2026-02-24/debates/A381F7D6-0A3C-48FD-8D9E-67751E25877A/NationalInsuranceContributions(EmployerPensionsContributions)Bill. +
+
+Institute for Research on Poverty. 2025. 2025–2026 IRP +Extramural Large Grants. https://www.irp.wisc.edu/2025-2026-irp-extramural-large-grants/. +
+
+Kennan, Ariel, Alessandra Garcia Guevara, and Jason Goodman. 2025. +AI-Powered Rules as Code: Experiments with Public +Benefits Policy. Beeck Center for Social Impact; Innovation, +Georgetown University. https://beeckcenter.georgetown.edu/report/ai-powered-rules-as-code-experiments-with-public-benefits-policy/. +
+
+Kennan, Ariel, Lisa Singh, Bianca Dammholz, Keya Sengupta, and Jason Yi. +2023. Exploring Rules Communication: Moving Beyond Static Documents +to Standardized Code for U.S. Public Benefits +Programs. Beeck Center for Social Impact; Innovation, Georgetown +University. https://beeckcenter.georgetown.edu/report/exploring-rules-communication-moving-beyond-static-documents-to-standardized-code-for-u-s-public-benefits-programs/. +
+
+McCabe, Joshua, and Leah Sargeant. 2024. Building a Stronger +Foundation for American Families: Options for Child +Tax Credit Reform. Niskanen Center. https://www.niskanencenter.org/building-a-stronger-foundation-for-american-families-options-for-child-tax-credit-reform/. +
+
+Mosley, Max, Ryan Wattam, and Carol Vincent. 2025. UK +Living Standards Review 2025. National Institute of Economic; +Social Research. https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standards-review-2025. +
+
+National Science Foundation. 2025. POSE: Phase +I: PolicyEngine – Advancing Public Policy +Analysis. https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2518372. +
+
+Nuffield Foundation. 2024. Enhancing, Localising and Democratising +Tax-Benefit Policy Analysis. https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/enhancing-localising-and-democratising-tax-benefit-policy-analysis. +
+
+Office of Representative Morgan McGarvey. 2024. Congressman +Morgan McGarvey Introduces Young Adult Tax Credit +Act. https://mcgarvey.house.gov/media/press-releases/congressman-morgan-mcgarvey-introduces-young-adult-tax-credit-act. +
+
+Office of Senator Cory Booker. 2026. Booker Announces Keep +Your Pay Act. https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/booker-announces-keep-your-pay-act. +
+
+OpenFisca Contributors. 2024. OpenFisca: Open Rules as +Code for Tax-Benefit Systems. Released. https://openfisca.org. +
+
+Sutherland, Holly, and Francesco Figari. 2013. +EUROMOD: The European Union Tax-Benefit +Microsimulation Model.” International Journal of +Microsimulation 6 (1): 4–26. https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00075. +
+
+Woodruff, Nikhil. 2024. Raising Employer NIC in the +Autumn Budget. Institute of Economic Affairs. https://iea.org.uk/publications/raising-employer-nic-in-the-autumn-budget/. +
+
+Woodruff, Nikhil. 2025. Impact of Tax Changes 2025–2026. +Institute of Economic Affairs. https://iea.org.uk/publications/impact-of-tax-changes-2025-2026/. +
+
+Woodruff, Nikhil, Max Ghenis, and Anthony Volk. 2024. +PolicyEngine Core: A Microsimulation Framework. +Released. https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-core. +
+
+Youngman, Tom, Tim Lennox, M. Lopes Alves, et al. 2026. Agent-Based +Macroeconomics for the UK’s Seventh Carbon +Budget. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.15607. +
+
+ +
+
+ + + + + diff --git a/paper.md b/paper.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..deb215d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper.md @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +--- +title: "PolicyEngine: A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Framework" +tags: + - Python + - microsimulation + - tax + - benefit + - public policy + - economic analysis +authors: + - name: Max Ghenis + orcid: 0000-0002-1335-8277 + affiliation: '1' + - name: Nikhil Woodruff + orcid: 0009-0009-5004-4910 + affiliation: '1' + - name: Vahid Ahmadi + orcid: 0009-0004-1093-6272 + affiliation: '1' + corresponding: true + - name: Pavel Makarchuk + orcid: 0009-0003-4869-7409 + affiliation: '1' +affiliations: + - name: PolicyEngine, Washington, DC, United States + index: '1' +date: 2 April 2026 +bibliography: paper.bib +--- + +# Summary + +PolicyEngine.py [@policyengine_py] is an open-source, multi-country microsimulation framework for tax-benefit policy analysis, implemented in Python. The package provides a unified interface for running policy simulations, analyzing distributional impacts, and visualizing results across the US and the UK. It delegates country-specific tax-benefit calculations to dedicated country packages (policyengine-us and policyengine-uk) while providing shared abstractions for simulations, datasets, parametric reforms, and output analysis. The framework supports both individual household simulations and population-wide microsimulations using representative survey microdata with calibrated weights. PolicyEngine powers an interactive web application at [policyengine.org](https://policyengine.org) that enables non-technical users to explore policy reforms in both countries. + +# Statement of Need + +Tax-benefit microsimulation models are essential tools for evaluating the distributional impacts of fiscal policy. Governments, think tanks, and researchers rely on such models to estimate how policy reforms affect household incomes, poverty rates, and government budgets. Existing microsimulation models face significant access barriers. TAXSIM [@taxsim] at NBER computes only tax liabilities and omits the benefit side of the ledger entirely. The models maintained by the Congressional Budget Office and the Tax Policy Center are fully proprietary and unavailable to external researchers. In the UK, UKMOD [@sutherland2014euromod], maintained by the University of Essex, requires a formal application and institutional affiliation to access, and the models maintained by HM Treasury and the Institute for Fiscal Studies are similarly proprietary. +PolicyEngine addresses these gaps by providing an open-source Python microsimulation framework that spans multiple countries under a consistent API. Users can supply their own microdata or use built-in datasets, and compute the impact of current law or hypothetical policy reforms on any household or a national population. The Simulation class supports individual household analysis, while population-level aggregate analysis uses representative survey datasets with calibrated weights. Because existing proprietary models cannot be independently verified, PolicyEngine enables reproducible and transparent policy analysis. The framework's open development on GitHub enables external validation, community contributions, and reproducible policy analysis across countries. + +# State of the Field + +Tax-benefit microsimulation — pioneered by Orcutt [-@orcutt1957] and surveyed by Bourguignon and Spadaro [-@bourguignon2006] — underpins much of modern fiscal policy evaluation. The primary UK microsimulation models include UKMOD, maintained by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, as part of the EUROMOD family [@sutherland2014euromod], and proprietary models maintained by HM Treasury and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. OpenFisca [@openfisca] pioneered the open-source approach to tax-benefit microsimulation in France. PolicyEngine originated from OpenFisca and builds on this foundation through the PolicyEngine Core framework [@policyengine_core]. + +Rather than contributing these features directly to OpenFisca, PolicyEngine introduced a separate analyst-facing layer because the project required capabilities that cut across countries and sit downstream of legislative modeling: harmonized dataset handling, a stable reform API, standardized distributional outputs, and integration with a public-facing web application. This design lets country model packages focus on statutory rules while shared analysis workflows evolve independently. + +PolicyEngine differentiates itself in several ways: + +- **Open-source, multi-country framework**: a single Python package supports the US and UK tax-benefit systems under a consistent API, with no institutional access or license fees required. +- **Comprehensive program coverage**: the US model covers over 11 programs including federal income tax, payroll taxes, state income taxes, SNAP, SSI, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, EITC, CTC, and TANF; the UK model covers over 37 programs spanning income tax, National Insurance, Universal Credit, Child Benefit, Council Tax, and devolved policies in Scotland and Wales. +- **Separated modeling, analysis, and data layers**: the project splits reusable engine logic into PolicyEngine Core, country-agnostic analysis workflows into PolicyEngine.py, country legislation into policyengine-us and policyengine-uk, and enhanced survey microdata into companion repositories [@policyengine_core; @woodruff2024enhanced_cps]. This separation allows each layer to be versioned and updated independently as legislation, methodology, and microdata change. +- **Programmatic reform and economic analysis**: users can define hypothetical policy reforms as date-bound parameter values, compose multiple reforms with the `+` operator, or implement structural changes via simulation modifiers, then evaluate impacts on households, poverty, inequality, government budgets, and subnational regions. Behavioral response modules model both intensive-margin (hours adjustment) and extensive-margin (participation) labor supply responses to policy changes. + +# Software Design + +PolicyEngine is built as a four-layer system. PolicyEngine Core extends the OpenFisca engine with reusable simulation abstractions, versioned parameters, and dataset interfaces shared across countries [@policyengine_core]. PolicyEngine.py adds country-agnostic analyst workflows, including baseline-versus-reform comparisons, standardized output types, and visualization helpers. The policyengine-us and policyengine-uk packages contain statutory logic, variables, and entity structures specific to each tax-benefit system. Companion data repositories hold enhanced survey microdata and calibration pipelines for the CPS [@woodruff2024enhanced_cps] and Family Resources Survey. + +![PolicyEngine architecture. Policies, household microdata, and behavioral response parameters feed into the Simulation engine, producing decile impacts, poverty rates, inequality metrics, regional breakdowns, and budgetary impacts.](architecture.png){width="100%"} + +This split trades some packaging complexity for clearer ownership and release independence. Legislative changes in a country package do not require duplicating shared output logic; methodological changes to distributional analysis do not require modifying statutory formulas; and microdata refreshes can be versioned separately from the modeling libraries. It also supports different contributor workflows, since legal rules, data calibration, and analyst-facing outputs are maintained by overlapping but distinct groups. + +As shown in Figure 1, at runtime a simulation combines three inputs: policies from a country model version, household microdata, and optional behavioral response parameters. The following example doubles the US federal standard deduction for single filers and runs a full distributional analysis: + +```python +import datetime +from policyengine.core import Parameter, ParameterValue, Policy, Simulation +from policyengine.tax_benefit_models.us import ( + economic_impact_analysis, us_latest, +) + +param = Parameter( + name="gov.irs.deductions.standard.amount.SINGLE", + tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest, +) +reform = Policy( + name="Double standard deduction", + parameter_values=[ + ParameterValue( + parameter=param, + start_date=datetime.date(2026, 1, 1), + end_date=datetime.date(2026, 12, 31), + value=30_950, + ), + ], +) +baseline = Simulation(tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest) +reformed = Simulation(tax_benefit_model_version=us_latest, policy=reform) +analysis = economic_impact_analysis(baseline, reformed) +``` + +The `analysis` object contains decile impacts, program-by-program statistics, poverty rates, and inequality metrics. PolicyEngine.py then applies a consistent analysis layer across countries, producing these outputs from the resulting entity-level data. + +PolicyEngine models static fiscal impacts; it does not model macroeconomic feedback effects or general equilibrium responses. + +# Research Impact Statement + +PolicyEngine has demonstrated research impact across government, academia, and policy research in both the US and UK. + +**Government adoption.** In the US, PolicyEngine collaborated with the Better Government Lab — a joint center of the Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy and the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy — on benefits eligibility research [@pe_bgl]. In the UK, co-author Nikhil Woodruff served as an Innovation Fellow in 2025–2026 with 10DS — the data science team at 10 Downing Street — adapting PolicyEngine for government use [@ghenis2026no10]. The 10DS team used PolicyEngine to rapidly estimate the impacts of policy reforms on living standards, local area incomes, and distributional outcomes. HM Treasury has also formally documented PolicyEngine in the UK Algorithmic Transparency Recording Standard, describing it as a model their Personal Tax, Welfare and Pensions team is exploring for "advising policymakers on the impact of tax and welfare measures on households" [@hmt2024atrs]. + +**Congressional and parliamentary citation.** In the US, Representatives Morgan McGarvey and Bonnie Watson Coleman cited PolicyEngine's analysis in introducing the Young Adult Tax Credit Act (H.R.7547), stating that "according to the model at PolicyEngine, 22% of all Americans would see an increase in their household income under this program, and it would lift over 4 million Americans out of poverty" [@mcgarvey2024yatc]. In the UK, Baroness Altmann referenced PolicyEngine and its interactive dashboard during House of Lords Grand Committee debate on the National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Bill in February 2026, noting that Commons Library research using PolicyEngine provided "a useful picture of the distributional effects of raising the contribution limit" across income deciles [@hansard2026nic]. + +**Institutional partnership.** PolicyEngine and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) signed a formal memorandum of understanding for PolicyEngine to develop an open-source TAXSIM emulator — a drop-in replacement for TAXSIM-35 powered by PolicyEngine's microsimulation engine, with support for Python, R, Stata, SAS, and Julia [@pe_nber_mou]. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta independently validates PolicyEngine's model through its Policy Rules Database, conducting three-way comparisons between PolicyEngine, TAXSIM, and the Fed's own models [@atlanta_fed_prd]. Co-author Max Ghenis and Jason DeBacker (University of South Carolina) presented the Enhanced Current Population Survey methodology at the 117th Annual Conference on Taxation of the National Tax Association [@ghenis2024nta]. + +**Academic research.** Matt Unrath (University of Southern California) is using PolicyEngine in a study of effective marginal and average tax rates facing American families, funded by the US Department of Health and Human Services through the Institute for Research on Poverty [@pe_usc]. The Beeck Center at Georgetown University featured PolicyEngine in research on rules-as-code for US public benefits [@beeck2023rac; @beeck2025ai]. Youngman et al. [@youngman2026carbon] cite PolicyEngine UK's microdata methodology in their agent-based macroeconomic model for the UK's Seventh Carbon Budget at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford. + +**Policy research.** In the US, the Niskanen Center used PolicyEngine to estimate the cost and distributional impacts of Child Tax Credit reform options [@mccabe2024ctc]. DC Councilmember Zachary Parker cited PolicyEngine's analysis when introducing the District Child Tax Credit Amendment Act of 2023, the first local child tax credit in US history [@pe_dctc]. Senator Cory Booker's office embedded a PolicyEngine-built calculator on his official Senate website for the Keep Your Pay Act [@pe_keepyourpay]. In the UK, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) used PolicyEngine in their UK Living Standards Review 2025 [@niesr2025living], and the Institute of Economic Affairs has published PolicyEngine-based analyses of employer National Insurance contributions and 2025–2026 tax changes [@woodruff2024nic; @woodruff2025tax]. + +# Acknowledgements + +This work was supported in the US by Arnold Ventures [@arnold_ventures], NEO Philanthropy [@neo_philanthropy], the Gerald Huff Fund for Humanity, and the National Science Foundation (NSF POSE Phase I, Award 2518372) [@nsf_pose], and in the UK by the Nuffield Foundation since September 2024 [@nuffield2024grant]. These funders had no involvement in the design, development, or content of this software or paper. + +We acknowledge contributions from all PolicyEngine contributors, and thank the OpenFisca community for the foundational microsimulation framework [@openfisca]. We acknowledge the US Census Bureau for providing access to the Current Population Survey, and the UK Data Service and the Department for Work and Pensions for providing access to the Family Resources Survey. We acknowledge the UKMOD team at the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex, for their contributions to model descriptions [@sutherland2014euromod]. + +# AI Usage Disclosure + +Generative AI tools — Claude Opus 4 by Anthropic [@claude2026] — were used to assist with code refactoring. All AI-assisted outputs were reviewed, edited, and validated by human authors, who made all core design decisions regarding software architecture, policy modeling, and parameter implementation. The authors remain fully responsible for the accuracy, originality, and correctness of all submitted materials. + +# References