[2015-10-11] New Assessments of runs with Ice

[lawinslow]

Remove bias. Remove wind issue. Use new ice model.

• Assess trends
• Assess bias between GENMOM (downscaled models)

[lawinslow]

EDIT: This was the secchi-only subset. I take these values back.

[jordansread]

💯 👍 !!

[jordansread]

Oh, just saw the next comment..

[lawinslow]

Ok, either way these runs are pretty good. Using "best available" secchi for all the lakes with validation data, we get:

Metric	Value
RMSE	2.57
Bias	0.05

Quite reasonable.

[lawinslow]

GENMOM Results

Metric	Value
RMSE	3.17
Bias	0.80

Covers only 1980-1999. This does not include any driver bias corrections. Not too bad.

[lawinslow]

Trends actually look pretty good with NLDAS wind fixed (which may have been the major culprit) and new, with-ice continuous runs. Here are the trends for surface temperature, JAS for the modeled northern LTER lakes. This compares favorably to the overall ~0.04 degC/yr we see in Wisconsin.

     site_id                 Name Abbreviation    WBIC      nldas_mod_JAS_trend
1 WBIC_1835300 Big Muskellunge Lake           BM 1835300 0.03412556
2 WBIC_1842400         Crystal Lake           CR 1842400 0.03598052
3 WBIC_1881900       Sparkling Lake           SP 1881900 0.03610157
4 WBIC_2331600           Trout Lake           TR 2331600 0.03564253
5 WBIC_2332400       Allequash Lake           AL 2332400 0.03351620

Median overall surface JAS trend of modeled lakes

0.03 °C/yr

A little muted perhaps, but definitely better than before.