quick-botec/time_long_covid.squiggle at main · joel-becker/quick-botec · GitHub

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// Common parameters
share_hours_aron = normal(0.65, 0.1)
wage_aron = 40
wage_joel = 60
overhead_percentage = 0.2
wage_average = (share_hours_aron * wage_aron + (1 - share_hours_aron) * wage_joel) * (1 + overhead_percentage)
funding_manifund = 8k

// Sunk time
time_understand_project = 7

// Partially sunk time
time_prevalence_and_duration = (20 to 25) * 2
time_symptomatology = (1 to 5) * 2

// Upcoming time
time_case_projections = 3 to 20
time_interaction_effects = 10 to 50
time_add_uncertainty = 10 to 30
time_internal_discussion = 10 to 50
time_internal_writeup = 10 to 30
time_external_discussion = 5 to 20
time_external_writeup = 20 to 50

// Inside-view and planning-fallacy-adjusted total time
time_total_insideview = (
  time_understand_project +
  time_prevalence_and_duration +
  time_symptomatology +
  time_case_projections +
  time_interaction_effects +
  time_add_uncertainty +
  time_internal_discussion +
  time_internal_writeup +
  time_external_discussion +
  time_external_writeup
)

adjustment_planningfallacy = 1.5 to 2.5
time_total_planningfallacy = time_total_insideview * adjustment_planningfallacy

// Time funded and unfunded
time_funded = funding_manifund / wage_average
time_unfunded = time_total_planningfallacy - time_funded

// Funding gap
funding_gap = time_unfunded * wage_average