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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Exponential Progress Atlas</title>
<meta name="description" content="Interactive timelines showing how compute, energy, coordination, memory, and adoption compound into civilizational acceleration.">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="shared/site.css">
<style>
body { max-width: 1200px; }
</style>
</head>
<body data-page="home" data-published-count="9">
<header class="hero">
<p class="eyebrow">Manifest-driven data visualization atlas</p>
<h1>Exponential Progress Atlas</h1>
<p class="subtitle">Interactive timelines showing how compute, energy, coordination, memory, and adoption compound into civilizational acceleration.</p>
<nav class="quick-links" aria-label="Published atlas entries">
<strong>9 published entries:</strong>
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline_interactive.html">AI Compute</a>
<a href="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline_interactive.html">Adoption</a>
<a href="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling_interactive.html">Energetic</a>
<a href="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling_interactive.html">Civilization</a>
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage_interactive.html">Energy Leverage</a>
<a href="model-sizes/output/model_sizes_interactive.html">Model Sizes</a>
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress_interactive.html">AI Benchmarks</a>
<a href="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train_interactive.html">Cost to Train</a>
<a href="dashboard/index.html">Dashboard</a>
</nav>
</header>
<section class="thesis" aria-labelledby="thesis-title">
<h2 id="thesis-title">Atlas Thesis</h2>
<div class="thesis-flow" aria-label="Compute, energy, coordination, memory, and adoption feed capability acceleration">
<span>Energy</span>
<span>Compute</span>
<span>Memory</span>
<span>Coordination</span>
<span>Adoption</span>
<strong>Capability Acceleration</strong>
</div>
<p>Each chart is an audit surface: historical observations, estimates, proxies, and speculative projections are labeled so the story remains readable without hiding uncertainty.</p>
</section>
<section class="description" aria-labelledby="read-title">
<h2 id="read-title">How to Read These Charts</h2>
<p>Log scales turn multiplicative change into visible slopes. Circle markers indicate observed or estimated history; alternate markers and badges identify proxies, forecasts, and source-review needs. Use the interactive links for hover text and the data links to inspect source fields directly.</p>
</section>
<main class="cards" aria-label="Published atlas cards">
<article class="card" data-plot-id="ai-compute-timeline">
<a class="card-media" href="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline_interactive.html" aria-label="Open AI Compute Timeline interactive plot">
<img src="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline_highres.png" alt="AI Compute Timeline chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">1. AI Compute</div>
<h2>AI Compute Timeline</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">10^27+ FLOPs</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Training compute from early electronic computing to frontier AI, with proxies and speculative projections labeled separately.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/output/ai_compute_timeline.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/data/ai_milestones.csv">Data</a>
<a href="ai-compute-timeline/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="adoption-timeline">
<a class="card-media" href="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Adoption Timeline interactive plot">
<img src="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline_highres.png" alt="Adoption Timeline chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">2. Adoption</div>
<h2>Adoption Timeline</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">60x faster</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Time-to-scale proxies across computing, connectivity, mobile, cloud, and AI paradigms.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="adoption-timeline/output/adoption_timeline.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="adoption-timeline/data/tech_adoption.csv">Data</a>
<a href="adoption-timeline/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="energetic-scaling">
<a class="card-media" href="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Energetic Scaling interactive plot">
<img src="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling_highres.png" alt="Energetic Scaling chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">3. Energetic</div>
<h2>Energetic Scaling</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">10^6x+ efficiency</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Biology, hardware efficiency, AI training compute, and foraging energetics compared with clean source datasets.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="energetic-scaling/output/energetic_scaling.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="energetic-scaling/data/scaling_data.csv">Data</a>
<a href="energetic-scaling/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="civilization-scaling">
<a class="card-media" href="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Civilization Scaling interactive plot">
<img src="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling_highres.png" alt="Civilization Scaling chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">4. Civilization</div>
<h2>Civilization Scaling</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">5 lanes</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Five civilizational lanes: energy, coordination, memory, replication, and latency over log-time.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="civilization-scaling/output/civilization_scaling.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="civilization-scaling/data/civilization_metrics.csv">Data</a>
<a href="civilization-scaling/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="energy-leverage-per-person">
<a class="card-media" href="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Energy Leverage interactive plot">
<img src="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage_highres.png" alt="Energy Leverage chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">5. Energy Leverage</div>
<h2>Energy Leverage</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">High confidence</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">17x body energy</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: High</span></div>
<p>Per-person energy command relative to the metabolic baseline, with period anchors labeled explicitly.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/output/energy_leverage.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/data/energy_leverage_datapoints.csv">Data</a>
<a href="energy-leverage-per-person/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="model-sizes">
<a class="card-media" href="model-sizes/output/model_sizes_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Model Sizes interactive plot">
<img src="model-sizes/output/model_sizes_highres.png" alt="Model Sizes chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">6. Model Sizes</div>
<h2>Model Sizes</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span><span class="badge">Needs source review</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">1.5B -> 5T params</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Speculative</span></div>
<p>Language model parameter counts over time, separating disclosed counts from estimates and unreleased projections.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="model-sizes/output/model_sizes_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="model-sizes/output/model_sizes_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="model-sizes/output/model_sizes.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="model-sizes/data/llm_model_sizes.csv">Data</a>
<a href="model-sizes/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="ai-benchmark-progress">
<a class="card-media" href="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress_interactive.html" aria-label="Open AI Benchmark Progress interactive plot">
<img src="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress_highres.png" alt="AI Benchmark Progress chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">7. AI Benchmarks</div>
<h2>AI Benchmark Progress</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">4 benchmark lanes</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Benchmark progress against human baselines across knowledge, coding, software engineering, and reasoning tasks.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/output/benchmark_progress.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/data/benchmark_data.csv">Data</a>
<a href="ai-benchmark-progress/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="cost-to-train">
<a class="card-media" href="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train_interactive.html" aria-label="Open Cost to Train interactive plot">
<img src="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train_highres.png" alt="Cost to Train chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas">
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">8. Cost to Train</div>
<h2>Cost to Train</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">$/FLOP collapse</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>Training cost, FLOPs, and capability over time, showing the efficiency paradox at the frontier.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train_interactive.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train_highres.png">PNG</a>
<a href="cost-to-train/output/cost_to_train.svg">SVG</a>
<a href="cost-to-train/data/training_costs.csv">Data</a>
<a href="cost-to-train/data/meta.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card" data-plot-id="dashboard">
<a class="card-media" href="dashboard/index.html" aria-label="Open Unified Dashboard">
<div class="dashboard-preview" role="img" aria-label="Unified Dashboard timeline preview">Unified Dashboard</div>
</a>
<div class="card-content">
<div class="card-kicker">9. Dashboard</div>
<h2>Unified Dashboard</h2>
<div class="badges"><span class="badge">Historical</span><span class="badge">Estimated</span><span class="badge">Speculative</span></div>
<div class="card-stat"><span class="stat-number">9 atlas entries</span><span class="stat-label">Data confidence: Mixed</span></div>
<p>A synchronized overview of the atlas inventory using the same manifest as the homepage, README, build, and validator.</p>
<div class="links">
<a href="dashboard/index.html">Interactive</a>
<a href="plots_manifest.json">Data</a>
<a href="plots_manifest.json">Metadata</a>
</div>
</div>
</article>
</main>
<section class="why-section" aria-labelledby="inventory-title">
<h2 id="inventory-title">Canonical Inventory</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr><th>#</th><th>Entry</th><th>Scope</th><th>Confidence</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>1</td><td><strong>AI Compute Timeline</strong></td><td>Training compute from early electronic computing to frontier AI, with proxies and speculative projections labeled separately.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td><strong>Adoption Timeline</strong></td><td>Time-to-scale proxies across computing, connectivity, mobile, cloud, and AI paradigms.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td><strong>Energetic Scaling</strong></td><td>Biology, hardware efficiency, AI training compute, and foraging energetics compared with clean source datasets.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>4</td><td><strong>Civilization Scaling</strong></td><td>Five civilizational lanes: energy, coordination, memory, replication, and latency over log-time.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td><strong>Energy Leverage</strong></td><td>Per-person energy command relative to the metabolic baseline, with period anchors labeled explicitly.</td><td>high</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td><strong>Model Sizes</strong></td><td>Language model parameter counts over time, separating disclosed counts from estimates and unreleased projections.</td><td>speculative</td></tr>
<tr><td>7</td><td><strong>AI Benchmark Progress</strong></td><td>Benchmark progress against human baselines across knowledge, coding, software engineering, and reasoning tasks.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>8</td><td><strong>Cost to Train</strong></td><td>Training cost, FLOPs, and capability over time, showing the efficiency paradox at the frontier.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
<tr><td>9</td><td><strong>Unified Dashboard</strong></td><td>A synchronized overview of the atlas inventory using the same manifest as the homepage, README, build, and validator.</td><td>mixed</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</section>
<footer>
<p>
Inventory: <a href="plots_manifest.json">plots_manifest.json</a> |
Built with Plotly, Matplotlib, D3.js |
<a href="https://github.com/mschwar/plots">GitHub</a> |
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