Polymarket Arbitrage Bot · Polymarket Trading Bot · @distict-baguette Fork

Polymarket arbitrage bot and Polymarket copytrading bot for automated prediction-market trading. This Polymarket trading bot that trades Polymarket’s 15-minute Up/Down markets (e.g. BTC, ETH) using the CLOB API, WebSocket orderbook, and an adaptive price predictor.

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What this bot does

Automated Polymarket trading on 15-minute Up/Down markets. It uses a price predictor to choose direction, places a first-side limit at best ask, then hedges with a second-side limit at 0.98 − firstSidePrice. Built with TypeScript and Polymarket’s CLOB API. Suitable as a Polymarket arbitrage bot or Polymarket copytrading bot for 15m markets.

About the developer

If have any questions, contact here: Telegram.

Proof of work

Bot logs from live runs: logs.

Video of analytics for https://polymarket.com/@distinct-baguette

bagutee.1.mp4

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Backtest Results

markets_count:     177
markets_replayed:  177
total_entries:     108
total_dip_orders:  0
total_risk_sells:  66
skipped_no_pred:   0
skipped_low_conf:  68
skipped_no_entry:  0
skipped_startup:   69
total_pnl:         1938.00
stats:             win_rate=23.73% avg_win=+46.14 avg_loss=+0.00 max_dd=0.00
config:            {'order_size': 100.0, 'min_order_size': 5.0, 'ask_offset': 0.0, 'bid_offset': 0.0, 'max_spread': 0.02, 'immediate_buy_enabled': True, 'entry_buy_price': 0.6, 'delayed_entry_buy': 0.7, 'delay_seconds': 0.0, 'dip_buy_enabled': False, 'dip_buy_price': 0.7, 'risk_sell_enabled': True, 'risk_sell_price': 0.2, 'model_15m_path': 'prediction_15m/models/btc_15min_updown_lgbm.pkl', 'model_table': 'price_cache', 'model_limit_1s': 30000, 'min_signal_probability': 0.52, 'table': 'price_cache'}
daily_stats:
  date         markets  up  down   pnl       win_rate  avg_cost/market  total_cost
  2026-03-18     93   81    12  +1070.00    24.73%            41.94      3900.00
  2026-03-19     84   58    26   +868.00    22.62%            30.71      2580.00
overall_cost_stats:
  avg_cost_per_market: 36.61
  total_cost:          6480.00
  overall_win_rate:    23.73%
  up_trades:           139
  down_trades:         38
  pnl_per_market:      +10.95

*** TOTAL PNL: +1938.00 ***

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Overview

• Strategy: Predict Up/Down from live orderbook via an adaptive price predictor; buy the predicted side at best ask (GTC), then place the opposite side at 0.98 − firstSidePrice (GTC).
• Markets: Configurable list (e.g. btc, eth); slugs are resolved as {market}-updown-15m-{startOf15mUnix} via Polymarket Gamma API.
• Stack: TypeScript, Node (or Bun), @polymarket/clob-client, WebSocket orderbook, Ethers.js for allowances/redemption.

Requirements

• Node.js 18+ (or Bun)
• Polygon wallet with USDC
• RPC URL for Polygon (e.g. Alchemy) for allowances and redemption

Install

git clone https://github.com/CrewSX/polymarket-trading-bot.git
cd polymarket-trading-bot
npm install

Configuration

Copy the example env and set at least PRIVATE_KEY and COPYTRADE_MARKETS:

cp .env.temp .env

Variable	Description	Default
PRIVATE_KEY	Wallet private key	required
COPYTRADE_MARKETS	Comma-separated markets (e.g. btc)	btc
COPYTRADE_SHARES	Shares per side per trade	5
COPYTRADE_TICK_SIZE	Price precision	0.01
COPYTRADE_PRICE_BUFFER	Price buffer for execution	0
COPYTRADE_WAIT_FOR_NEXT_MARKET_START	Wait for next 15m boundary before starting	false
COPYTRADE_MAX_BUY_COUNTS_PER_SIDE	Max buys per side per market (0 = no cap)	0
CHAIN_ID	Chain ID (Polygon)	137
CLOB_API_URL	Polymarket CLOB API base URL	https://clob.polymarket.com
RPC_URL / RPC_TOKEN	RPC for allowances/redemption	—
BOT_MIN_USDC_BALANCE	Min USDC to start	1
LOG_DIR / LOG_FILE_PREFIX	Log directory and file prefix	logs / bot

API credentials are created on first run and stored in src/data/credential.json.

Usage

Run the Polymarket trading bot

npm start
# or: bun src/index.ts

Redemption

# Auto-redeem resolved markets (holdings file)
npm run redeem:holdings
# or: bun src/auto-redeem.ts [--dry-run] [--clear-holdings] [--api] [--max N]

# Redeem by condition ID
npm run redeem
# or: bun src/redeem.ts [conditionId] [indexSets...]
bun src/redeem.ts --check <conditionId>

Development

npx tsc --noEmit
bun --watch src/index.ts

Project structure

Path	Role
src/index.ts	Entry: credentials, CLOB, allowances, min balance, start CopytradeArbBot.
src/config/index.ts	Loads .env and exposes config (chain, CLOB, copytrade, logging).
src/order-builder/copytrade.ts	CopytradeArbBot: 15m slug resolution, WebSocket orderbook, predictor → first-side buy + second-side hedge; state in src/data/copytrade-state.json.
src/providers/clobclient.ts	Polymarket CLOB client singleton (credentials + PRIVATE_KEY).
src/providers/websocketOrderbook.ts	WebSocket to Polymarket CLOB market channel; best bid/ask by token ID.
src/utils/pricePredictor.ts	AdaptivePricePredictor: direction, confidence, signal (BUY_UP / BUY_DOWN / HOLD).
src/utils/redeem.ts	CTF redemption, resolution checks, auto-redeem from holdings or API.
src/security/allowance.ts	USDC and CTF approvals.
src/data/token-holding.json	Token holdings for redemption (generated).
src/data/copytrade-state.json	Per-slug state (prices, timestamps, buy counts).

Risk and disclaimer

Trading prediction markets involves significant risk. This software is provided as-is. Use at your own discretion and only with funds you can afford to lose.

License

ISC