Automated hedged arbitrage on Polymarket's 15-minute Up/Down markets (e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL). Uses mean-reversion triggers to enter one side at favorable prices, then hedges the opposite side at 0.98 − firstSidePrice. Built with TypeScript and Polymarket's CLOB API.
| Strategy | Hedged mean-reversion: track YES/NO midpoint prices; when one side drops below threshold, trigger buy on reversal, depth discount, or time-based second-side; hedge opposite side at dynamicThreshold = 1 − firstFillPrice + boost (e.g. 0.98 − firstSidePrice). |
| Markets | Configurable list (e.g. btc, eth, sol); slugs resolved as {market}-updown-15m-{startOf15mUnix} via Gamma API. |
| Stack | TypeScript, Node.js (or Bun), @polymarket/clob-client, Ethers.js for allowances/redemption. |
- Node.js 18+ (or Bun)
- Polygon wallet with USDC and POL (for gas)
- RPC URL for Polygon (e.g. Alchemy) for allowances and redemption
git clone https://github.com/Danielsoldev/Polymarket-Arbitrage-Bot.git
cd Polymarket-Arbitrage-Bot
npm installCopy the example env and set at least PRIVATE_KEY and TRADE_MARKETS:
cp .env.example .env| Variable | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|
PRIVATE_KEY |
Wallet private key | required |
TRADE_MARKETS |
Comma-separated markets (e.g. btc, eth, sol) |
btc |
TRADE_SHARES |
Shares per side per trade | 5 |
TRADE_THRESHOLD |
Entry threshold for first side | 0.47 |
TRADE_TICK_SIZE |
Price precision | 0.01 |
TRADE_PRICE_BUFFER |
Price buffer for execution | 0.05 |
TRADE_WAIT_FOR_NEXT_MARKET_START |
Wait for next 15m boundary before starting | false |
MAX_BUYS_PER_SIDE |
Max buys per side per 15m cycle | 1 |
TRADE_MAX_SUM_AVG |
Max combined avg price guard | 0.99 |
REVERSAL_DELTA |
Reversal amount to trigger buy | 0.02 |
TRADE_DEPTH_BUY_DISCOUNT_PERCENT |
Depth discount trigger (%) | 0.02 |
TRADE_DYNAMIC_THRESHOLD_BOOST |
Boost for second-side threshold | 0.04 |
CHAIN_ID |
Chain ID (Polygon) | 137 |
CLOB_API_URL |
CLOB API base URL | https://clob.polymarket.com |
RPC_URL / RPC_TOKEN |
RPC for allowances/redemption | — |
BOT_MIN_USDC_BALANCE |
Min USDC to start | 1 |
LOG_DIR / LOG_FILE_PREFIX |
Log directory and file prefix | logs / bot |
API credentials are created on first run and stored in src/data/credential.json.
npm start
# or: bun src/index.ts# Auto-redeem resolved markets (holdings file)
npm run redeem:holdings
# Redeem by condition ID
npm run redeemnpm run balance:lognpx tsc --noEmit
bun --watch src/index.ts| Path | Role |
|---|---|
src/index.ts |
Entry: credentials, CLOB, allowances, min balance, start CopytradeArbBot |
src/config/index.ts |
Loads .env and exposes config (chain, CLOB, copytrade, logging) |
src/order-builder/copytrade.ts |
CopytradeArbBot: 15m slug resolution, midpoint polling, three triggers → first-side buy + second-side hedge; state in src/data/copytrade-state.json |
src/providers/clobclient.ts |
CLOB client singleton (credentials + PRIVATE_KEY) |
src/security/allowance.ts |
USDC and CTF approvals |
src/security/createCredential.ts |
API credential bootstrap |
src/utils/balance.ts |
Balance checks / wait gates |
src/utils/holdings.ts |
Position persistence for redemption |
src/utils/console-file.ts |
Daily file logging |
src/data/copytrade-state.json |
Per-slug state (prices, timestamps, buy counts) |
src/data/token-holding.json |
Token holdings for redemption (generated) |
Trading prediction markets involves significant risk. This software is provided as-is. Use at your own discretion and only with funds you can afford to lose.
ISC