PSLmodels · bodiyang · Feb 21, 2025 · Aug 14, 2024 · Oct 29, 2024 · Nov 21, 2024
diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage1.py b/cps_stage1/stage1.py
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2034  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2035  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv b/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
-,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034
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-wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5144342954,5545000204,5894502414,6224778570,6509392846,6778900936,7042915867,7315170537,7599098168,7890235569,8188582741,8493796362,8806906397,9131689395
+,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035
+Single,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,72028792,71924422,73183813,74331876,75333822,76224441,77122018,77984804,78861507,79745168,80635787,81540322,82451814,83377223,84309589,85248914,86209112,87169310,88150383,89131455,90133401
+Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555,68304329,69065104,69842417,70619730,71413582
+HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351,27354020,27658689,27969982,28281275,28599191
+SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784,49843325,50509181,51128455,51758690,52484829
+Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416,113150216,113828632,114487666,115137008
+INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,147423693,155851925,184373437,175945205,192488933,201542637,213364053,231127451,248155919,263292336,278288021,293580805,307075359,322555785,337786022
+DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,494147800,519032208,531334326,636933872,674222278,713370011,743246583,770678014,802108269,834455452,867413921,901111027,935674119,971281492,1007958613
+SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,536549154,552846820,573190804,618974134,645574923,673749280,699638217,724328245,748681080,773333642,799260045,827322004,858493633,891650954,925407730
+SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,85549315,88149545,91386919,98688229,102930107,107418805,111551623,115489279,119369535,123301451,127434268,131911487,136882348,142163169,147541572
+CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1522675479,1983609468,3582355270,2216825992,1630541647,2364595591,2497983035,2427270769,2360929551,2361775560,2406896049,2473660271,2553960640,2645259129,2742550181,2844000779,2950104428
+Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1069779122,1093456192,1161502899,1239696921,1300647139,1361928969,1422348608,1487543454,1553932103,1620785008,1687770557,1757210033,1828705500,1903251795,1981578462
+SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1621317337,1711451646,1505793081,2221112501,2278747680,2301090832,2309384881,2305407123,2319879393,2380222832,2482459682,2598068571,2711053832,2821923264,2937108987
+SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,255797226,270021168,237566540,350423168,359521816,363044412,364363299,363728897,366016080,375532098,391675938,409906624,427736636,445216057,463396659
+SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,848657280,898463271,939067232,1016191751,1138003633,1234222366,1313187292,1389794197,1469219225,1554568059,1642447452,1732167252,1823152330,1915172637,2008055634,2105424621,2207567162
+UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,8711705,11041927,12180408,12736332,13235666,13651777,14094519,14567222,15036595,15482666,15925409,16398111
+wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,170920853,185370987,194653827,206234512,216317596,226274928,235820705,245778036,255872553,266024229,276415979,287104963,298011156,309351768,321081070
+wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,391709690,424825940,446099986,472640145,495748161,518567982,540444619,563264439,586398655,609663868,633479272,657975865,682970250,708960218,735840971
+wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,570021256,618212472,649170753,687792353,721419451,754627164,786462342,819670055,853335279,887191133,921847633,957495407,993867575,1031688529,1070805766
+wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,625800532,678707487,712695182,755096088,792013757,828471001,863421402,899878647,936838172,974006982,1012054784,1051190862,1091122218,1132644131,1175589175
+wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,625519811,678403032,712375481,754757367,791658475,828099366,863034089,899474979,936417926,973570062,1011600796,1050719319,1090632762,1132136050,1175061829
+wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1370436973,1486297606,1560727064,1653580562,1734426353,1814263862,1890801543,1970639053,2051576505,2132972266,2216292928,2301996798,2389442245,2480370844,2574415946
+wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1256753103,1363002580,1431257781,1516408667,1590547938,1663762569,1733951108,1807165739,1881389068,1956032687,2032441528,2111035879,2191227335,2274613001,2360856642
+wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5133013315,5566972838,5845750633,6193536231,6496346595,6795380412,7082054622,7381088439,7684242125,7989112423,8301192491,8622198942,8949728519,9290304347,9642553137
diff --git a/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz b/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz
diff --git a/cps_stage2/solver.jl b/cps_stage2/solver.jl
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2034]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2035]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

diff --git a/cps_stage2/stage2.py b/cps_stage2/stage2.py
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2034
+END_YEAR = 2035
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:

diff --git a/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md b/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md
@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: February 2024
+Previous Document: February 2023
 
-Current Document: June 2024
+Current Document: January 2025
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -70,9 +70,9 @@ Current Document: June 2024
 
 Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7)
 
-Previous: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx)
+Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
-Current: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx)
+Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projectio
 
 Previous: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
-Current: [Fall 2023 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23projpub6187tables.xlsx)
+Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/24projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column:
 
 Previous: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
-Current: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Current: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
 Projections are taken directly from the `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 column of this table.
@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ column of this table.
 Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
-Access Date: November 04 2024
+Access Date: 
 
 Manual Instructions:
 
@@ -124,9 +124,9 @@ Manual Instructions:
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
-Previous: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51316-2024-02-unemployment.xlsx)
+Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
 
-Current: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51316-2024-06-unemployment.xlsx)
+Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

diff --git a/history/report_utils.py b/history/report_utils.py
@@ -626,10 +626,10 @@ def CBO_projections(rev_proj):
         "Calculation of adjusted gross income (AGI)"
     ].loc["Taxable pensions and annuities and IRA distributions"]
     ssb = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of adjusted gross income (AGI)"].loc[
-        "Taxable Social Security benefits                  "
+        "Taxable Social Security benefitsc                  "
     ]
     other_inc = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of adjusted gross income (AGI)"].loc[
-        "All other sources of incomec"
+        "All other sources of incomed"
     ]
     total_inc = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of adjusted gross income (AGI)"].loc[
         "Total income"
@@ -649,40 +649,40 @@ def CBO_projections(rev_proj):
         "Subtract standard deduction (non-itemizers only)"
     ]
     sub_tot_item = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of taxable income"].loc[
-        "Subtract total itemized deductions (itemizers only) after limitsd"
+        "Subtract total itemized deductions (itemizers only) after limitse"
     ]
     sub_qbid = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of taxable income"].loc[
         "Subtract qualified business income deduction"
     ]
     sub_tot_expt = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of taxable income"].loc[
-        "Total exemptions and deductions after limitse"
+        "Total exemptions and deductions after limitsf"
     ]
     taxable_inc = (
-        rev_proj.loc["Calculation of taxable income"].loc["Taxable incomef"].iloc[0]
+        rev_proj.loc["Calculation of taxable income"].loc["Taxable incomeg"].iloc[0]
     )
     tot_inctax = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of income tax liability"].loc[
         "Total income tax (including AMT) before credits"
     ]
     tot_cdt = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of income tax liability"].loc[
-        "Total credits (refundable and nonrefundable)i"
+        "Total credits (refundable and nonrefundable) j"
     ]
     inctax_af_credit = rev_proj.loc["Calculation of income tax liability"].loc[
-        "Income tax after creditsj"
+        "Income tax after creditsk"
     ]
-    Top1p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)o"].loc[
+    Top1p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)p"].loc[
         "Top 1 percent"
     ]
-    Top5p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)o"].loc[
+    Top5p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)p"].loc[
         "Top 5 percent"
     ]
-    Top10p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)o"].loc[
+    Top10p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)p"].loc[
         "Top 10 percent"
     ]
-    Top25p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)o"].loc[
+    Top25p = rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)p"].loc[
         "Top 25 percent"
     ]
     Top50p = (
-        rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)o"]
+        rev_proj.loc["Shares of AGI by income group (percent)p"]
         .loc["Top 50 percent"]
         .iloc[0]
     )

diff --git a/history/reports/taxdata_report_2025-02-12.pdf b/history/reports/taxdata_report_2025-02-12.pdf