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Add provisional OACT long-run target source #670

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into from
Apr 6, 2026
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Add provisional OACT long-run target source #670

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Add provisional OACT long-run target source
MaxGhenis Mar 31, 2026
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Trigger PR checks
MaxGhenis Apr 5, 2026
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/README.md
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Expand Up @@ -181,6 +181,7 @@ python run_household_projection_parallel.py \
**Local files** (in `policyengine_us_data/storage/`):
- `SSPopJul_TR2024.csv` - Population projections 2025-2100 by single year of age
- `long_term_target_sources/trustees_2025_current_law.csv` - explicit frozen Trustees/current-law package
- `long_term_target_sources/oact_2025_08_05_provisional.csv` - OACT-updated TOB package with provisional HI bridge
- `long_term_target_sources/sources.json` - provenance metadata for named source packages
- `ASSUMPTION_COMPARISON.md` - side-by-side summary of our calibration assumptions versus Trustees/OACT

Expand All @@ -205,6 +206,7 @@ python run_household_projection_parallel.py \
- **`run_household_projection.py`** - Main projection script (see Quick Start)
- **`calibration.py`** - IPF and GREG weight calibration implementations
- **`ssa_data.py`** - Load SSA population and named long-term target source projections
- **`build_long_term_target_sources.py`** - Rebuild named long-term target source packages
- **`projection_utils.py`** - Utility functions (age matrix builder, H5 file creator)
- **`extract_ssa_costs.py`** - One-time script to extract SSA data from Excel (already run)

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection.py
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Expand Up @@ -32,6 +32,7 @@
python run_household_projection.py 2075 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-synthetic-v1 --support-augmentation-target-year 2100 --allow-validation-failures
python run_household_projection.py 2100 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-composite-v1 --support-augmentation-target-year 2100 --support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale 0.5 --allow-validation-failures --save-h5
python run_household_projection.py 2075 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source trustees_2025_current_law --support-augmentation-profile donor-backed-composite-v1 --support-augmentation-align-to-run-year --support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale 0.5 --allow-validation-failures
python run_household_projection.py 2025 2100 --profile ss-payroll-tob --target-source oact_2025_08_05_provisional --save-h5
"""

import sys
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions policyengine_us_data/storage/README.md
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Expand Up @@ -34,6 +34,8 @@
• Source packages for long-term CPS calibration targets
• Files:
- `trustees_2025_current_law.csv`: explicit frozen copy of the legacy Trustees/current-law target path
- `oact_2025_08_05_provisional.csv`: OACT-updated TOB path with provisional HI bridge
- `oasdi_oact_20250805_nominal_delta.csv`: raw OASDI TOB deltas from the August 5, 2025 OACT letter
- `sources.json`: provenance and source metadata for each named package
• Notes: `run_household_projection.py --target-source ...` selects from these packages instead of relying on branch-specific data files

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