docs: add downside analysis for Sea Limited (SE)#1258
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ryan-koala wants to merge 73 commits intomainfrom
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docs: add downside analysis for Sea Limited (SE)#1258ryan-koala wants to merge 73 commits intomainfrom
ryan-koala wants to merge 73 commits intomainfrom
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…agpal/dodao-ui into feat-downside-analysis-se
Added "Effect" and "Expected Pricing Impact" sections to each checklist parameter in both files. These detail what happens when each red flag triggers and quantify the expected price impact (mild/moderate/severe) to help avoid downside risk. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
OBDC: 7 checklists covering NII vs dividend coverage, supplemental trajectory, non-accruals, NAV erosion, merger risk, yield compression, P/NAV discount. CRH: 7 checklists covering forward P/E, EPS vs consensus, leverage, EBITDA guidance, M&A spend, organic growth, and industry/macro risk composite. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…agpal/dodao-ui into feat-downside-analysis-se
14 measurable checklist items extracted from SE, ACM, OBDC, CRH, AGM, PGR, and ZTS analyses. Each item includes the metric, red flag threshold, one-line explanation, which stocks demonstrated it, and expected pricing impact. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
8 checklists: gross margin trend, EBITDA margin, Colombian peso FX, aluminum costs, revenue deceleration, consecutive EPS misses, installation mix shift, and industry/macro composite. Stock fell 56% despite record revenue and backlog due to margin collapse from peso appreciation, aluminum spike, and tariffs hitting simultaneously. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…agpal/dodao-ui into feat-downside-analysis-se
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Consolidated two overlapping files into a single reader-friendly reference. Removed duplication, put final ranking table first, organized by importance. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds a step to compare average multiples (PE, EV/EBITDA) across two 5-year windows before setting the stress test floor. If the multiple expanded >25% without corresponding business improvement, the pre-expansion average is used as the severe-case floor. Also flags double reversion risk when both multiple and margins are at highs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Major changes: - Added data sourcing section with specific URLs - Added LLM-followable structure (Goal/Inputs/Steps/Rules/Output per step) - Enforced exact template headers and table titles - Added mandatory weighted expected price calculation display - Standardized overlap discount to 60% for all scenarios - Added stress test base multiple justification requirement - Added valuation regime check as sub-step of stress test - Added revenue risk rules by moat strength (4F) - Added quick reference checklist - Updated SE report to match new framework structure Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…, add time horizon - Fixed bear case price range mismatch between framework example ($50-65) and SE report ($47-55) - Fixed severe case price range mismatch ($35-48 vs $28-40) - Added dual price derivation: stress test matrix (primary) + overlap discount (secondary cross-check) - Added rule: if two methods diverge >15%, investigate and state which you trust - Added time horizon requirement to report template - Added time horizon to SE report header Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…rd PE rules - Added guidance on when to collapse revenue+margin into EBITDA as axis variable - Added which valuation metric to use (EV/EBITDA vs PE vs EV/Revenue vs P/Book) - Added TTM vs Forward PE rule: if divergence >40%, explain the gap - Updated SE report ratio snapshot with note explaining 73% TTM/Forward PE divergence - Clarified EV/EBITDA as primary metric for multi-segment companies like SE Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…e detail - Added scoring rubrics for all 4 ratings (Moat, Financial Health, Precedent, Overall) - Clarified Overall Downside Risk is a judgment call, not an average - Fixed SE report to explicitly name top 2 competitors (TikTok Shop + Lazada) - Added Competitive Landscape Detail section to SE Section 2 with revenue risk calc - Added competitor comparison table with threat levels and evidence Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…g ratios - Added TTM/Forward PE divergence check and price cross-check to checklist - Added top 2 competitors requirement to checklist - Added Debt/EBITDA and Net Cash to SE ratio snapshot - Added explicit price derivation cross-check in SE stress test section - Both methods (overlap discount vs stress test matrix) agree within 2-10% for SE Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add time horizon line, standardize section headers, fix structural elements. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add time horizon line, standardize section headers, fix structural elements. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add time horizon line, standardize section headers, fix structural elements. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add time horizon line, standardize section headers, fix structural elements. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add weighted expected prices table with explicit calculations for all 31 stocks, framework update note documenting structural improvements across all reports, and key finding that leverage is the strongest predictor of further downside. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
docs/ai-knowledge/insights-ui/downside-analysis/SE.mdTest plan
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