CapEs is a system dynamics simulation model for primary care workforce planning. It predicts the percentage of primary care needs met and unmet by clinically diverse teams, using limited available data.
CapEs was developed in partnership with the BC Ministry of Health and has been used to review primary care workforce community and team plans in three Canadian provinces.
See more on our CapEs Website
CapEs is built in Stella Architect 4. The model has three components:
- Population Model — calculates visit need based on population size, baseline visit rates, clinical complexity, prevention targets, and rurality
- Team Model — calculates visit capacity from provider FTEs, daily visit rates by role, shared care rates, and coordination overhead
- Simulation — runs a simulation that predicts primary care need weekly: primary care need accumulates, providers draw visits by priority and shared care rates, and remaining visits flow to unmet need
You can run CapEs in Stella Architect to use the full user interface (see below). The .stmx file format is based on the XMILE open standard and can be read by other system dynamics tools that support XMILE.
If you use CapEs in your work, please cite:
Price M. CapEs: A primary care capacity estimator for workforce planning. (under review)
This work is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Department of Family Practice, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia
morgan.price (at) ubc.ca
For related work, see the Primary Care Innovation Support Unit (ISU) at UBC